The trade impact of the integration of the Central and Eastern European Countries on the European Union Carmela

This paper analyses the determinants of trade patterns between the CEECs and the OECD countries since the latter began their processes of transition and opening-up within the framework of the Association Agreements with the EU, with the ultimate aim of helping to anticipate the trade impact of their accession to the EU. To this end, we estimate an empirical model for a set of countries formed by the EU states, the CEECs and -by way of a control areathe other members of the OECD. Thus, we obtain new evidence about the determinants of the trade shares of the countries analysed. In addition, by using the corresponding dummies, we confirm that the Association Agreements have led to a preferential expansion of the exchanges between the EU and CEECs. JEL: F15 ; F23 ; P20